Pakistan: Situational update & digital campaign analysis

Summary

  • The vote count for Pakistan’s recent election has concluded, with Imran Khan’s allies winning the most seats in the National Assembly, but not enough to form a majority.
  • With no single party having enough seats to create a government independently, hopes of ending political turmoil are dampened. Khan’s party has declared victory and is urging all institutions to respect its mandate.
  • However, there have been protests and petitions challenging the election results, and foreign governments have expressed concerns about irregularities and manipulation.
  • Khan’s populist rhetoric and the country’s internet-savvy youth are reshaping Pakistani politics. His party used social media and AI to reach voters and mobilize support, bypassing state censorship.
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Interconnected:  The electrical grids of India, Bhutan, and Nepal

Summary

  • While the electrical grids of India, Bhutan, and Nepal aren’t fully synchronized as a single system, they are interconnected through various points and agreements, allowing for electricity exchange. 
  • As landlocked and mountainous countries, Nepal and Bhutan have limited options to industrialize, but have hydropower potential. Electricity can be an important export for both. 
  • The electrical grid connections facilitate the trade in electricity and contribute to regional energy security. Countries like Nepal and Bhutan export surplus electricity and import energy during periods of deficit, thereby supporting their energy needs and economic development.
  • These interconnections between India, Bhutan, and Nepal have spurred significant geopolitical and domestic political issues within the region, largely shaped by strategic interests, economic dependencies, and environmental concerns.
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Sri Lanka: Briefing Note

For a detailed timeline of major events in Sri Lanka post-2019, please visit our Sri Lanka Timeline.

Political Landscape

  • As Sri Lanka celebrated its 76th Independence Day on the 4th of February, the political outlook with elections due in August/September continues to be murky.
  • At a speech to mark the occasion, President Ranil Wickremesinghe stated:
    • “On several occasions, I pointed out the seriousness and danger of the looming economic crisis we are facing today. I have already said that the first six months of this year will be extremely difficult. We have to face this difficult situation in our stride, although unwillingly, for the sake of the country.”.
  • With an eye towards elections, this shows awareness of the ongoing discontent with many of the measures taken under the IMF program, such as increased taxes and changes to the social safety net.
  • Wickremesinghe’s future electoral success is contingent on his ability to persuade the electorate that the current austerity is for the greater good, and the only available option.
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PPM Newsletter

We’ve moved our newsletter, formerly hosted on Substack, to this blog.

The (youth) gender divide

Young voters have been a constant theme for this newsletter. One article published recently has caused a great deal of controversy by suggesting that, contrary to popular belief, Gen Z can actually be considered as two distinct groups rather than one. Specifically, women aged 18 to 30 are significantly more liberal compared to their male counterparts [paywall]. This marks a shift from previous decades where both genders were relatively evenly distributed across liberal and conservative ideologies. In fact, the difference in liberal views between women and men in this age group is as high as 30%.

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Rising Tides of Controversy: Navigating the India-Maldives Spat

The latest controversy between India and the Maldives primarily revolves around a series of events that have strained the diplomatic relations between the two nations. The controversy was ignited by negative remarks made by three deputy ministers in the Ministry of Youth Affairs in the Maldives about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. These remarks were made in response to Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep and were perceived as a challenge to the Maldivian tourism industry, which is renowned for its beachside amenities.

The Indian government raised this issue with the Maldives, resulting in the suspension of the three ministers by the Maldivian government.

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Indonesian elections: situational brief

Summary

The 2024 Indonesian presidential election will involve a complex interplay of economic challenges, political legacies, and the rising influence of young voters. 

  • The Economy: The main worries for the people in Indonesia are inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. These problems have got worse because of global events like the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the war in Ukraine.
  • Political Dynasties: Political dynasties have also become a critical issue, with President Joko Widodo’s son running as a vice-presidential candidate, sparking debates about the role of political dynasties in Indonesian politics. 
  • Youth vote: Young voters, including Gen Z and Millennials, will play a significant role in the election, with their concerns about employment and climate issues influencing their voting decisions. The use of social media platforms like TikTok in political campaigning is also indicative of a shift in election dynamics. 
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Pakistan: situational brief

Summary

  • Pressures and vulnerabilities: Pakistan faces a precarious economic situation. Growing trade imbalances, high inflation, and a depreciating rupee threaten stability. The IMF loan program offers vital support, but demanding austerity measures fuel public discontent.
  • Political turmoil: Imran Khan’s PTI party faces challenges, including disputes with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) that could impact its standing in the upcoming election. Other parties like PML-N and PPP are seeking alliances to increase their chances of forming the next government.
  • Military’s influence: The Pakistani military continues to wield significant influence, with concerns about its behind-the-scenes role in political manoeuvring. Balancing civilian aspirations with the military’s interests remains a delicate task.
  • Moving Forward: Pakistan’s path ahead hinges on balancing economic reforms with social needs, tackling corruption, and ensuring credible elections. Navigating complex international relations with regional players and managing security concerns along the Afghan border are further hurdles.
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Young voters in Asia

Young voters in Asia are emerging as a critical demographic in shaping electoral outcomes. In the upcoming 2024 Indonesian general election, for instance, millennials and Gen-Z voters comprise more than half of the eligible voting population. This significant proportion underscores their potential to decisively influence the presidential and legislative elections.

In Taiwan, whom young people ultimately vote for — and how many vote at all — could be crucial in deciding the presidential election on Jan. 13. About 70% of Taiwanese in their 20s and 30s voted in the 2020 presidential election, a lower share than among middle-aged and older voters, according to official data. People ages 20 to 34 count for one-fifth of Taiwan’s population, government estimates show.

Meanwhile, in India, there has been an ongoing concern about the number of young people who are eligible to vote but do not. Prime Minister Modi took to Twitter before the recent state elections to encourage young and first time voters.

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Indian state elections: situational brief

Summary

  • Results: In the recent 2023 state elections in India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a significant victory in several key states. The BJP swept the Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, showcasing its dominance in the lead-up to the 2024 general election.
  • The BJP machine: The BJP’s resounding victories reflect its robust electoral machinery and the enduring popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, positioning it strongly for the national polls. These wins underscore the BJP’s effective governance narrative and its appeal across a significant voter base.
  • A weak opposition: Conversely, Congress’s mixed results, particularly its losses in politically crucial regions, point to challenges in mounting a strong opposition. The emergence of a multi-party alliance led by Congress had suggested an evolving political landscape. However, the BJP’s dominance in key states indicates a potentially uphill battle for the opposition.
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