Navigating the Era of Gerontocracy: Health, Age, and Political Stagnation

Lately, the remarkable strides in medical science have undeniably enhanced the quality and expectancy of human life. This triumph, however, has ushered in an unintended consequence in the political arena, leading to the emergence of a gerontocracy—a governance system where the elderly hold significant power and influence. This phenomenon raises pertinent questions about the interplay between health, age, and political stagnation, and how these factors shape governance in various nations across the globe.

The term ‘gerontocracy’ originates from the Greek words ‘geron’ meaning old man and ‘kratos’ meaning power. It aptly describes a situation where leadership is predominantly in the hands of an older generation, often resulting in a resistance to change and innovation. This is particularly poignant in today’s fast-paced world, where adaptability and technological savvy are paramount.

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Sri Lanka: Briefing Note

For a detailed timeline of major events in Sri Lanka post-2019, please visit our Sri Lanka Timeline.

Our previous Sri Lanka briefing notes can found here.

Political Landscape

  • The landscape continues to be dominated by discourse around the leftist NPP party: this time in the aftermath of their visit to India on an official visit.
    • The NPP is attempting to pitch this as an example of their growth into a party fit for government. 
    • Its opponents are trying to portray the visit as hypocrisy and proof that for all their extravagant rhetoric, the NPP are constrained by the same geopolitical realities as every other aspirant for government. 
  • The biggest winner here is the Indian government. It is now starkly apparent that whoever forms a government will have to defer to the political muscle and economic might of India.
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Pakistan: Situational update & digital campaign analysis

Summary

  • The vote count for Pakistan’s recent election has concluded, with Imran Khan’s allies winning the most seats in the National Assembly, but not enough to form a majority.
  • With no single party having enough seats to create a government independently, hopes of ending political turmoil are dampened. Khan’s party has declared victory and is urging all institutions to respect its mandate.
  • However, there have been protests and petitions challenging the election results, and foreign governments have expressed concerns about irregularities and manipulation.
  • Khan’s populist rhetoric and the country’s internet-savvy youth are reshaping Pakistani politics. His party used social media and AI to reach voters and mobilize support, bypassing state censorship.
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Interconnected:  The electrical grids of India, Bhutan, and Nepal

Summary

  • While the electrical grids of India, Bhutan, and Nepal aren’t fully synchronized as a single system, they are interconnected through various points and agreements, allowing for electricity exchange. 
  • As landlocked and mountainous countries, Nepal and Bhutan have limited options to industrialize, but have hydropower potential. Electricity can be an important export for both. 
  • The electrical grid connections facilitate the trade in electricity and contribute to regional energy security. Countries like Nepal and Bhutan export surplus electricity and import energy during periods of deficit, thereby supporting their energy needs and economic development.
  • These interconnections between India, Bhutan, and Nepal have spurred significant geopolitical and domestic political issues within the region, largely shaped by strategic interests, economic dependencies, and environmental concerns.
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Sri Lanka: Briefing Note

For a detailed timeline of major events in Sri Lanka post-2019, please visit our Sri Lanka Timeline.

Political Landscape

  • As Sri Lanka celebrated its 76th Independence Day on the 4th of February, the political outlook with elections due in August/September continues to be murky.
  • At a speech to mark the occasion, President Ranil Wickremesinghe stated:
    • “On several occasions, I pointed out the seriousness and danger of the looming economic crisis we are facing today. I have already said that the first six months of this year will be extremely difficult. We have to face this difficult situation in our stride, although unwillingly, for the sake of the country.”.
  • With an eye towards elections, this shows awareness of the ongoing discontent with many of the measures taken under the IMF program, such as increased taxes and changes to the social safety net.
  • Wickremesinghe’s future electoral success is contingent on his ability to persuade the electorate that the current austerity is for the greater good, and the only available option.
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PPM Newsletter

We’ve moved our newsletter, formerly hosted on Substack, to this blog.

The (youth) gender divide

Young voters have been a constant theme for this newsletter. One article published recently has caused a great deal of controversy by suggesting that, contrary to popular belief, Gen Z can actually be considered as two distinct groups rather than one. Specifically, women aged 18 to 30 are significantly more liberal compared to their male counterparts [paywall]. This marks a shift from previous decades where both genders were relatively evenly distributed across liberal and conservative ideologies. In fact, the difference in liberal views between women and men in this age group is as high as 30%.

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Rising Tides of Controversy: Navigating the India-Maldives Spat

The latest controversy between India and the Maldives primarily revolves around a series of events that have strained the diplomatic relations between the two nations. The controversy was ignited by negative remarks made by three deputy ministers in the Ministry of Youth Affairs in the Maldives about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. These remarks were made in response to Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep and were perceived as a challenge to the Maldivian tourism industry, which is renowned for its beachside amenities.

The Indian government raised this issue with the Maldives, resulting in the suspension of the three ministers by the Maldivian government.

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Indonesian elections: situational brief

Summary

The 2024 Indonesian presidential election will involve a complex interplay of economic challenges, political legacies, and the rising influence of young voters. 

  • The Economy: The main worries for the people in Indonesia are inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. These problems have got worse because of global events like the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the war in Ukraine.
  • Political Dynasties: Political dynasties have also become a critical issue, with President Joko Widodo’s son running as a vice-presidential candidate, sparking debates about the role of political dynasties in Indonesian politics. 
  • Youth vote: Young voters, including Gen Z and Millennials, will play a significant role in the election, with their concerns about employment and climate issues influencing their voting decisions. The use of social media platforms like TikTok in political campaigning is also indicative of a shift in election dynamics. 
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Pakistan: situational brief

Summary

  • Pressures and vulnerabilities: Pakistan faces a precarious economic situation. Growing trade imbalances, high inflation, and a depreciating rupee threaten stability. The IMF loan program offers vital support, but demanding austerity measures fuel public discontent.
  • Political turmoil: Imran Khan’s PTI party faces challenges, including disputes with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) that could impact its standing in the upcoming election. Other parties like PML-N and PPP are seeking alliances to increase their chances of forming the next government.
  • Military’s influence: The Pakistani military continues to wield significant influence, with concerns about its behind-the-scenes role in political manoeuvring. Balancing civilian aspirations with the military’s interests remains a delicate task.
  • Moving Forward: Pakistan’s path ahead hinges on balancing economic reforms with social needs, tackling corruption, and ensuring credible elections. Navigating complex international relations with regional players and managing security concerns along the Afghan border are further hurdles.
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