Situational brief – Politics & Policy media

India’s Election Bond Scheme: situational brief

Summary

The Election Bond Scheme was launched by the Indian government in 2018, allowing anonymous donations to political parties via bonds issued by the State Bank of India, aimed at increasing transparency in political funding.
Despite initial optimism, the scheme faced criticism for lacking transparency, as it enabled donors to contribute anonymously, raising concerns about undisclosed influences on policymaking.
Analysis indicated a disproportionate advantage to the ruling party, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) receiving the majority of funds through these bonds, highlighting potential biases in the distribution of donations.
Legal and ethical concerns emerged regarding the potential for an influx of unaccounted money and foreign influence in the political system, prompting challenges in the Supreme Court of India and calls for reform to address these issues.

Global Farmer Protests: Briefing Note

Recently, the agricultural sector has experienced significant unrest, manifesting in waves of farmer protests across the globe. Particularly prominent in the EU and India, these movements have been driven by a confluence of economic, environmental, and political challenges, reflecting broader concerns about sustainability, equity, and governance in the agricultural domain. This briefing note provides an overview of these protests, highlighting key examples, common themes and issues, and the wider political implications.

Indonesian elections: situational brief

Summary

The 2024 Indonesian presidential election will involve a complex interplay of economic challenges, political legacies, and the rising influence of young voters.

The Economy: The main worries for the people in Indonesia are inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. These problems have got worse because of global events like the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the war in Ukraine.
Political Dynasties: Political dynasties have also become a critical issue, with President Joko Widodo’s son running as a vice-presidential candidate, sparking debates about the role of political dynasties in Indonesian politics.
Youth vote: Young voters, including Gen Z and Millennials, will play a significant role in the election, with their concerns about employment and climate issues influencing their voting decisions. The use of social media platforms like TikTok in political campaigning is also indicative of a shift in election dynamics.

Pakistan: situational brief

Summary

Pressures and vulnerabilities: Pakistan faces a precarious economic situation. Growing trade imbalances, high inflation, and a depreciating rupee threaten stability. The IMF loan program offers vital support, but demanding austerity measures fuel public discontent.
Political turmoil: Imran Khan’s PTI party faces challenges, including disputes with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) that could impact its standing in the upcoming election. Other parties like PML-N and PPP are seeking alliances to increase their chances of forming the next government.
Military’s influence: The Pakistani military continues to wield significant influence, with concerns about its behind-the-scenes role in political manoeuvring. Balancing civilian aspirations with the military’s interests remains a delicate task.
Moving Forward: Pakistan’s path ahead hinges on balancing economic reforms with social needs, tackling corruption, and ensuring credible elections. Navigating complex international relations with regional players and managing security concerns along the Afghan border are further hurdles.

Thailand: situational brief

Summary

2023 General Elections: The elections held on 14 May 2023 brought a surprising result with the Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, winning the most seats. This was followed by the opposition party Pheu Thai, which had previously dominated in the 2011 and 2019 elections. The voter turnout was notably high at 75.22%.
Post-Election Developments: After the election, Pheu Thai, initially in alliance with pro-democracy parties, dissolved its alliance with Move Forward and instead formed a coalition with conservative, pro-military parties. This led to the nomination and election of real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister on 22 August.
A new Shinawatra emerges: Thailand’s ruling party, the Pheu Thai Party, recently chose Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as its leader. This decision highlights the ongoing influence of the Shinawatra family in Thai politics, more than two decades since Thaksin’s entry into the political arena.

Bangladesh’s economy: Situational brief

The current economic developments in Bangladesh, particularly in its apparel industry and regarding foreign reserves, reveal a mix of past growth and current challenges.

Apparel Industry Growth: Over the past decade, Bangladesh’s apparel industry has seen significant growth. From 2011 to 2019, Ready-Made Garment (RMG) exports from Bangladesh more than doubled, increasing from $14.6 billion to $33.1 billion, marking a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
2023 Slowdown in Apparel Industry: However, 2023 presents a downturn for this key sector. A global slowdown is anticipated to heavily impact Bangladesh’s garment industry, with export growth expected to fall by approximately 3 percentage points. This reduction is attributed to a deceleration in global clothing demand, which is set to add pressure on Bangladesh’s GDP and its dwindling foreign exchange reservess.
Wage Protests and Increases: The Bangladeshi government announced a 56% increase in the monthly minimum wage for garment workers, raising it to $113 from the previous $75. Despite this increase, workers have continued to protest, demanding further wage increases. These protests have sometimes turned violent, with instances of vandalism and clashes with police.

Taiwan’s Presidential Elections: Situational brief

Taiwan’s upcoming January 2024 presidential election is a pivotal moment in its political landscape, marked by the candidacy of four main contenders: Vice President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang Party (KMT), Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), and independent candidate Terry Gou. This election is closely watched by both Washington and Beijing, given its implications for cross-Strait tensions and Taiwan’s global relationships.

The election’s focus is on managing relations with China, a key foreign policy issue, alongside domestic concerns such as economic and environmental policies. Lai Ching-te emphasises increasing Taiwan’s autonomy and security through closer relations with the United States and other democracies. The DPP has been at the helm during a period of growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Conversely, Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang (KMT) party, campaigns on averting war with China, asserting that the KMT is better equipped to manage cross-strait tensions.

Bhutan elections: Situational brief

Bhutan’s unique position between China and India has significant implications for regional security. While historically isolated, Bhutan has begun opening up to foreign influence, carefully managing its diplomatic ties. Its relationship with India is crucial, with India providing economic support and Bhutan serving as a buffer state. Bhutan’s diplomatic approach aims to balance relations with its neighbors and engage in global initiatives aligned with its developmental goals and values.

Bhutan is preparing for its National Assembly elections, which are scheduled to take place on 30 November 2023 and 9 January 2024 . The political landscape has evolved since the 2018 elections when the Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) won a majority of seats, and its leader, Lotay Tshering, became the Prime Ministe. The DNT has continued to strengthen its position, winning four by-elections during the 2018–2023 term.

Bangladesh elections: Situational brief

Bangladesh is approaching a critical period in its political landscape, with general elections scheduled for January 202. The political climate is described as tumultuous, with previous elections in 2014 and 2018 being marred by controversy. The opposition parties, in particular, are pressing for the resignation of the government led by Sheikh Hasina, who has been in power since 2009, to ensure a free and fair election.

The political unrest is not solely based on electoral politics but is also intertwined with an economic crisis that the country is currently facing. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is actively mobilizing the populace with a focus on the upcoming elections amid this challenging economic scenario.