The election: What I got right & wrong
A post election round-up of what I got right and where I was wrong. It’s a follow-up to my earlier post on “Why Biden will win“. To summarise: while I got the outlines of the result and pathway to victory correct, I got aspects of the electorate dramatically wrong. What I got wrong The Trump base The polls The […]
Why Biden will win
Misunderstanding the reasons for an electoral victory is something that plagues both campaigns and the media. Too often, the victory is attributed to the wrong or overly complex reasons. This surface level analysis is deliberately designed to contrast with the hot-takes that will inevitably follow in the aftermath of the election result. The primary reasons […]
Biden, Trump & framing the issues
In a series of tweets, I drew attention to a tactical mistake that Biden made in his response to BLM protests, especially over those in Kenosha. The key points are: “Law & Order” is safe Republican/Conservative territory Biden is adopting Trump’s framing of a nation at war with itself, which makes an authoritarian & conservative […]
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