Rest of the World – Politics & Policy media

The Trump-Vance Ticket — populist economics to the fore : situation update

Summary

The selection of JD Vance as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee signals a potential shift or reinforcement of certain economic and trade policies.
Vance, known for his populist stances and advocacy for the working class, aligns closely with many of Trump’s economic viewpoints.
This partnership likely suggests a future direction characterised by protectionist trade policies and a focus on reviving American manufacturing.
It indicates a strong desire among the electorate for policies that reclaim economic sovereignty, which is also reflected by the overlap between populist right and left economic policies

Situation brief: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024

Summary

Necessity for Fiscal Reforms: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 aims to address fiscal deficits through tax reforms and align with IMF-supported economic stability measures.
Strong Public Opposition: The Bill has sparked widespread protests, reflecting deep dissatisfaction among Kenyans due to increased costs of living and perceived punitive tax measures.
Government Advocacy vs. Public Sentiment: President Ruto promotes the bill as essential for economic health, contrasting sharply with the negative public perception and overwhelming opposition revealed in polls.
Government Response to Protests: In response to intense public backlash, the government amended the Bill to remove some controversial taxes, highlighting the impact of civic engagement on policy.
Protest violence: Protests against Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 have intensified, resulting in violent confrontations between the police and demonstrators, predominantly young adults. The police response, involving tear gas, water cannons, and live ammunition, has led to numerous injuries and arrests, and notably, one fatality.
Lessons on Public Policy: The situation underscores the importance of public buy-in for successful policy implementation, effective communication, and balancing international standards with local economic realities.

Chinese electric vehicles & soft power: situation update

Summary

Tariff Increase: The Biden administration is set to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) from 25% to potentially 100%, significantly raising the cost of Chinese EVs in the US market.
Geopolitical Strategy: This move aims to curtail China’s dominance in the global EV market and protect the nascent US clean energy sector from a flood of subsidised Chinese imports.
Domestic Industrial Policy: The tariffs are part of Biden’s broader strategy to boost American manufacturing, specifically in the EV and clean energy sectors, to ensure national security and economic growth.
Labour and Employment: The tariff policy is designed to support American jobs, particularly in the auto industry, resonating with labour unions and blue-collar workers in key battleground states.
Electoral Strategy: With the 2024 presidential election approaching, Biden’s move to raise tariffs helps distinguish his trade policy from that of former President Trump, who has also advocated for high tariffs on Chinese goods.

Istanbul’s Mayoral Election: situational brief

Ekrem İmamoğlu has risen to prominence as the Mayor of Istanbul since 2019, with a background in business administration and human resource management from Istanbul University.
Despite facing legal challenges, including a conviction for “insulting electoral officials” that has not resulted in a political ban pending appeal, İmamoğlu’s popularity and leadership in Istanbul were reinforced by a wide-margin victory in the 2024 mayoral election.
İmamoğlu’s appeal across various voter demographics and his handling of Istanbul’s challenges has led to some considering him a potential future presidential candidate.
Istanbul has always been a crucial political battleground in Turkey, and Erdoğan’s own political career began with his tenure as the city’s mayor in the 1990s.

Global Farmer Protests: Briefing Note

Recently, the agricultural sector has experienced significant unrest, manifesting in waves of farmer protests across the globe. Particularly prominent in the EU and India, these movements have been driven by a confluence of economic, environmental, and political challenges, reflecting broader concerns about sustainability, equity, and governance in the agricultural domain. This briefing note provides an overview of these protests, highlighting key examples, common themes and issues, and the wider political implications.

Navigating the Era of Gerontocracy: Health, Age, and Political Stagnation

Lately, the remarkable strides in medical science have undeniably enhanced the quality and expectancy of human life. This triumph, however, has ushered in an unintended consequence in the political arena, leading to the emergence of a gerontocracy—a governance system where the elderly hold significant power and influence. This phenomenon raises pertinent questions about the interplay between health, age, and political stagnation, and how these factors shape governance in various nations across the globe.

The term ‘gerontocracy’ originates from the Greek words ‘geron’ meaning old man and ‘kratos’ meaning power. It aptly describes a situation where leadership is predominantly in the hands of an older generation, often resulting in a resistance to change and innovation. This is particularly poignant in today’s fast-paced world, where adaptability and technological savvy are paramount.

The Year of Elections.

Welcome to 2024! Our team is eagerly looking forward to what has been dubbed “The Year of Elections.”

Ross Perot’s 1992 presidential campaign: flashback

With interest in third-party and insurgent presidential candidates in the US at a high point, our team thought it would be fun to do a series diving into some outsider candidates from previous campaigns, both presidential and primary runs. Today, we’re looking at Ross Perot’s 1992 run for the presidency.

Ross Perot was born on June 27, 1930, in Texarkana, Texas, and made a name for himself not just as a successful businessman and billionaire, but also as a noteworthy political figure. He was the driving force behind Electronic Data Systems (EDS) in 1962 and later, Perot Systems in 1988, both big hits in the IT world.

China and multilateral financial institutions

Q: “has China shown the IMF, the deal that has supposedly been struck between the China EXIM Bank and Sri Lanka?”

A: “We have not seen the details of this yet, but this again should come out through our routine engagement.”
Transcript of the Press Briefing on the 2023 China Article IV Consultation Mission

That exchange, in the latest press briefing by the IMF on China, caused us to revisit our post on Sri Lanka’s debt situation and provides an opportunity to expand on the broader geopolitical issues at play.

China’s interactions with multilateral financial institutions embody its larger international ambitions. Through strategic policy choices and leveraging its creditor status, China is actively working to transform these institutions, seeking a balance between its duties and rights, and striving to infuse the global financial governance structure with its own brand of influence.