Category: Asia

Sri Lanka: Briefing Note

For a detailed timeline of major events in Sri Lanka post-2019, please visit our Sri Lanka Timeline.

Political Landscape

  • As Sri Lanka celebrated its 76th Independence Day on the 4th of February, the political outlook with elections due in August/September continues to be murky.
  • At a speech to mark the occasion, President Ranil Wickremesinghe stated:
    • “On several occasions, I pointed out the seriousness and danger of the looming economic crisis we are facing today. I have already said that the first six months of this year will be extremely difficult. We have to face this difficult situation in our stride, although unwillingly, for the sake of the country.”.
  • With an eye towards elections, this shows awareness of the ongoing discontent with many of the measures taken under the IMF program, such as increased taxes and changes to the social safety net.
  • Wickremesinghe’s future electoral success is contingent on his ability to persuade the electorate that the current austerity is for the greater good, and the only available option.
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Rising Tides of Controversy: Navigating the India-Maldives Spat

The latest controversy between India and the Maldives primarily revolves around a series of events that have strained the diplomatic relations between the two nations. The controversy was ignited by negative remarks made by three deputy ministers in the Ministry of Youth Affairs in the Maldives about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. These remarks were made in response to Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep and were perceived as a challenge to the Maldivian tourism industry, which is renowned for its beachside amenities.

The Indian government raised this issue with the Maldives, resulting in the suspension of the three ministers by the Maldivian government.

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Indonesian elections: situational brief

Summary

The 2024 Indonesian presidential election will involve a complex interplay of economic challenges, political legacies, and the rising influence of young voters. 

  • The Economy: The main worries for the people in Indonesia are inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. These problems have got worse because of global events like the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the war in Ukraine.
  • Political Dynasties: Political dynasties have also become a critical issue, with President Joko Widodo’s son running as a vice-presidential candidate, sparking debates about the role of political dynasties in Indonesian politics. 
  • Youth vote: Young voters, including Gen Z and Millennials, will play a significant role in the election, with their concerns about employment and climate issues influencing their voting decisions. The use of social media platforms like TikTok in political campaigning is also indicative of a shift in election dynamics. 
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Pakistan: situational brief

Summary

  • Pressures and vulnerabilities: Pakistan faces a precarious economic situation. Growing trade imbalances, high inflation, and a depreciating rupee threaten stability. The IMF loan program offers vital support, but demanding austerity measures fuel public discontent.
  • Political turmoil: Imran Khan’s PTI party faces challenges, including disputes with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) that could impact its standing in the upcoming election. Other parties like PML-N and PPP are seeking alliances to increase their chances of forming the next government.
  • Military’s influence: The Pakistani military continues to wield significant influence, with concerns about its behind-the-scenes role in political manoeuvring. Balancing civilian aspirations with the military’s interests remains a delicate task.
  • Moving Forward: Pakistan’s path ahead hinges on balancing economic reforms with social needs, tackling corruption, and ensuring credible elections. Navigating complex international relations with regional players and managing security concerns along the Afghan border are further hurdles.
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Young voters in Asia

Young voters in Asia are emerging as a critical demographic in shaping electoral outcomes. In the upcoming 2024 Indonesian general election, for instance, millennials and Gen-Z voters comprise more than half of the eligible voting population. This significant proportion underscores their potential to decisively influence the presidential and legislative elections.

In Taiwan, whom young people ultimately vote for — and how many vote at all — could be crucial in deciding the presidential election on Jan. 13. About 70% of Taiwanese in their 20s and 30s voted in the 2020 presidential election, a lower share than among middle-aged and older voters, according to official data. People ages 20 to 34 count for one-fifth of Taiwan’s population, government estimates show.

Meanwhile, in India, there has been an ongoing concern about the number of young people who are eligible to vote but do not. Prime Minister Modi took to Twitter before the recent state elections to encourage young and first time voters.

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Indian state elections: situational brief

Summary

  • Results: In the recent 2023 state elections in India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a significant victory in several key states. The BJP swept the Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, showcasing its dominance in the lead-up to the 2024 general election.
  • The BJP machine: The BJP’s resounding victories reflect its robust electoral machinery and the enduring popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, positioning it strongly for the national polls. These wins underscore the BJP’s effective governance narrative and its appeal across a significant voter base.
  • A weak opposition: Conversely, Congress’s mixed results, particularly its losses in politically crucial regions, point to challenges in mounting a strong opposition. The emergence of a multi-party alliance led by Congress had suggested an evolving political landscape. However, the BJP’s dominance in key states indicates a potentially uphill battle for the opposition.
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Thailand: situational brief

Summary

  • 2023 General Elections: The elections held on 14 May 2023 brought a surprising result with the Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, winning the most seats. This was followed by the opposition party Pheu Thai, which had previously dominated in the 2011 and 2019 elections. The voter turnout was notably high at 75.22%.
  • Post-Election Developments: After the election, Pheu Thai, initially in alliance with pro-democracy parties, dissolved its alliance with Move Forward and instead formed a coalition with conservative, pro-military parties. This led to the nomination and election of real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister on 22 August.
  • A new Shinawatra emerges: Thailand’s ruling party, the Pheu Thai Party, recently chose Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as its leader. This decision highlights the ongoing influence of the Shinawatra family in Thai politics, more than two decades since Thaksin’s entry into the political arena.
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India’s G20 Presidency has given Multilateralism a human touch

A guest post by Kamal Madishetty, this article was originally published on Chintan

By recasting an elite diplomatic grouping as a mass movement, India has democratised the G20 and shown that the collective popular wisdom deserves to be heard.

Multilateralism, the practice of coordinating international efforts among multiple nations to address global challenges, has long been considered a cornerstone of global governance. It seeks to promote cooperation, ensure peace and security, and address pressing global challenges. However, in recent years, multilateralism has faced significant challenges that threaten its effectiveness and relevance.

The rise of populism and polarisation in the West, the predatory practices and aggressive foreign policy of China, and increasing geopolitical tensions across the world have all weighed down on multilateralism in recent times. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have raised the most potent challenges to the future of multilateral cooperation. It is in this extremely difficult context that India assumed the presidency of G20, the grouping of the world’s 20 biggest economies and consequently, 20 of the most influential actors on the planet.

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Maldives: situational update

Summary

  • Election Outcome: Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, from the People’s National Congress, wins the 2023 Maldivian presidential election with 54% of the votes, defeating incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.
  • Foreign Policy Shift: Muizzu is seen as more China-aligned, contrasting with Solih’s India and Western-focused foreign policy, hinting at a significant reorientation in the Maldives’ international relations.
  • Domestic Governance: Solih’s tenure was marked by democratic reforms and transparency. In contrast, Muizzu’s governance style might lean towards more centralized control, reflecting a change in domestic political management.
  • Economic Policies: Under Solih, there was an emphasis on anti-corruption and transparency in economic dealings. Muizzu’s presidency may focus on attracting more foreign investments, possibly with a stronger Chinese influence.
  • Social and Human Rights Policies: Solih’s government was more liberal, particularly in terms of speech and religious freedom. Muizzu’s administration might adopt a more conservative stance in these areas.
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