Month: December 2023

Pakistan: situational brief

Summary

  • Pressures and vulnerabilities: Pakistan faces a precarious economic situation. Growing trade imbalances, high inflation, and a depreciating rupee threaten stability. The IMF loan program offers vital support, but demanding austerity measures fuel public discontent.
  • Political turmoil: Imran Khan’s PTI party faces challenges, including disputes with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) that could impact its standing in the upcoming election. Other parties like PML-N and PPP are seeking alliances to increase their chances of forming the next government.
  • Military’s influence: The Pakistani military continues to wield significant influence, with concerns about its behind-the-scenes role in political manoeuvring. Balancing civilian aspirations with the military’s interests remains a delicate task.
  • Moving Forward: Pakistan’s path ahead hinges on balancing economic reforms with social needs, tackling corruption, and ensuring credible elections. Navigating complex international relations with regional players and managing security concerns along the Afghan border are further hurdles.
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Young voters in Asia

Young voters in Asia are emerging as a critical demographic in shaping electoral outcomes. In the upcoming 2024 Indonesian general election, for instance, millennials and Gen-Z voters comprise more than half of the eligible voting population. This significant proportion underscores their potential to decisively influence the presidential and legislative elections.

In Taiwan, whom young people ultimately vote for — and how many vote at all — could be crucial in deciding the presidential election on Jan. 13. About 70% of Taiwanese in their 20s and 30s voted in the 2020 presidential election, a lower share than among middle-aged and older voters, according to official data. People ages 20 to 34 count for one-fifth of Taiwan’s population, government estimates show.

Meanwhile, in India, there has been an ongoing concern about the number of young people who are eligible to vote but do not. Prime Minister Modi took to Twitter before the recent state elections to encourage young and first time voters.

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Indian state elections: situational brief

Summary

  • Results: In the recent 2023 state elections in India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a significant victory in several key states. The BJP swept the Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, showcasing its dominance in the lead-up to the 2024 general election.
  • The BJP machine: The BJP’s resounding victories reflect its robust electoral machinery and the enduring popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, positioning it strongly for the national polls. These wins underscore the BJP’s effective governance narrative and its appeal across a significant voter base.
  • A weak opposition: Conversely, Congress’s mixed results, particularly its losses in politically crucial regions, point to challenges in mounting a strong opposition. The emergence of a multi-party alliance led by Congress had suggested an evolving political landscape. However, the BJP’s dominance in key states indicates a potentially uphill battle for the opposition.
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