Tariffs as a Geopolitical Tool: The Intersection of Domestic Politics and Global Trade

Summary

  • Tariffs as Geopolitical Tools: Tariffs are increasingly used not only for economic protection but also for geopolitical strategy, influencing global trade and signalling national interests.
  • Chinese EV Industry Example: The EU and other countries are imposing or considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, citing unfair competition, while also protecting domestic industries from the rapid growth of China’s EV sector.
  • Domestic Political Motives: Tariffs often cater to domestic political considerations, such as protecting jobs and industries, as leaders seek to address public concerns and safeguard strategic sectors.
  • Impact on Global Trade: While tariffs may protect local industries, they risk disrupting international supply chains, increasing costs for consumers, and escalating global trade tensions.
  • Strategic Industries and Future Trends: Tariffs on key sectors like green energy and advanced technology are expected to grow, further entrenching protectionism and complicating global trade relations.
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Media Choices in the 2024 Presidential Campaign Reflect a Changing Communications Landscape

Summary

  • The media landscape has shifted, with traditional news outlets losing influence and alternative platforms like podcasts and social media gaining prominence.
  • Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are adopting multi-platform strategies to target specific voter demographics, particularly those disengaged from traditional media.
  • Harris’s media appearances on podcasts like Call Her Daddy and talk shows aim to reach young, female, and minority voters with tailored messaging.
  • Trump is focusing on podcasts hosted by influencers to connect with younger, male audiences, using their platforms to bypass traditional political news channels.
  • The shift in campaign strategies reflects the declining trust in traditional media, signalling the growing importance of personalised, direct engagement through alternative media.
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Middle-class populism in Singapore?: situation brief

  • Policy announcements: Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has announced policies to support the middle class, address societal concerns, and maintain social stability in Singapore.
  • Housing Affordability: Enhanced subsidies and adjusted income ceilings aim to make public housing more accessible for middle-income families, addressing the rising costs of private housing.
  • Healthcare and Social Security: Increased healthcare subsidies and expanded CPF contributions are designed to ease the financial burden on the middle class, particularly in the face of rising medical costs.
  • Education and Skills Development: Expanded subsidies for skills upgrading and lifelong learning seek to boost middle-class workers’ adaptability in a rapidly changing economy, ensuring continued upward mobility.
  • Cost of Living Relief: Targeted financial relief, such as utility bill rebates and tax reliefs, aims to mitigate the pressures of rising living costs on middle-income households.
  • Social Cohesion and Inequality: These policies aim to address middle-class disillusionment and prevent social fractures by ensuring economic opportunities remain accessible and social harmony is maintained amidst growing inequality.
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When Politicians and Food Don’t Mix: A Recipe for Awkwardness

The viral video of JD Vance’s awkward campaign stop at a donut shop sparked a lively discussion about food as a political prop. In politics, every gesture is scrutinised, every word dissected, and every bite savoured. Yet, despite the high stakes, politicians across the globe continue to venture into the treacherous territory of public dining as part of their electoral charm offensive. The result? Occasionally, it’s less of a gourmet experience and more of a farce.

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Navigating the Backlash Against Mass Tourism: briefing note

In recent years, the growing backlash against mass tourism has become a significant issue for many of the world’s top travel destinations. Cities and countries that have long benefited economically from tourism are now grappling with its negative consequences, from environmental degradation to social tensions. In response, many local governments have implemented measures to curb overtourism, such as banning short-term rentals, imposing higher tourism taxes, and limiting the number of cruise ships allowed to dock. These actions, while necessary to protect local communities and ecosystems, have also brought new challenges, particularly in the realm of local politics.

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Bangladesh: situation update

Summary

Bangladesh has experienced significant political unrest and violence, with the following key events have taken place in the past 24 hrs:

  • Violence and Clashes: The protests, initially driven by demands for electoral reforms and an end to the quota system for government jobs, have escalated into violent clashes between protesters and security forces. Over 80 people, including at least 13 police officers, have been reported killed in these confrontations. Authorities have imposed a curfew and restricted internet access in an attempt to control the situation.
  • Prime Minister Resigns: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and reportedly fled the capital, Dhaka, amid the escalating violence. This development has intensified the political crisis, with opposition parties and protesters calling for the establishment of an interim government to oversee the next elections.
  • General Waker-uz-Zaman assumes control: The military, led by General Waker-uz-Zaman, stepped in to restore order, imposing a curfew and restricting internet access. General Waker-uz-Zaman announced the military’s takeover in a press conference, emphasising the need to address the protesters’ demands and promising to stabilise the situation.
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Far-right violence in the UK: situation brief

Summary

  • Recent riots in England, triggered by a mass stabbing in Southport, have been driven by far-right groups and exacerbated by misinformation and xenophobic rhetoric​.
  • Public figures associated with the far-right like Tommy Robinson and Nigel Farage have been accused of inflaming tensions, with Farage questioning the authorities’ transparency and Robinson criticising government and police responses.
  • Refugees have been targeted in the violence, with far-right protesters attacking hotels housing asylum seekers and using nationalist slogans to incite further unrest. Muslims have also been significant targets, facing Islamophobic slurs and violent actions, particularly outside places of worship during protests​.
  • Authorities and community leaders are working to restore order and promote social cohesion, but the persistence of far-right rhetoric remains a significant challenge to these efforts​.
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The Trump-Vance Ticket — populist economics to the fore : situation update

Summary

  • The selection of JD Vance as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee signals a potential shift or reinforcement of certain economic and trade policies.
  • Vance, known for his populist stances and advocacy for the working class, aligns closely with many of Trump’s economic viewpoints.
  • This partnership likely suggests a future direction characterised by protectionist trade policies and a focus on reviving American manufacturing.
  • It indicates a strong desire among the electorate for policies that reclaim economic sovereignty, which is also reflected by the overlap between populist right and left economic policies
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Situation brief: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024

Summary

  • Necessity for Fiscal Reforms: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 aims to address fiscal deficits through tax reforms and align with IMF-supported economic stability measures.
  • Strong Public Opposition: The Bill has sparked widespread protests, reflecting deep dissatisfaction among Kenyans due to increased costs of living and perceived punitive tax measures.
  • Government Advocacy vs. Public Sentiment: President Ruto promotes the bill as essential for economic health, contrasting sharply with the negative public perception and overwhelming opposition revealed in polls.
  • Government Response to Protests: In response to intense public backlash, the government amended the Bill to remove some controversial taxes, highlighting the impact of civic engagement on policy.
  • Protest violence: Protests against Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 have intensified, resulting in violent confrontations between the police and demonstrators, predominantly young adults. The police response, involving tear gas, water cannons, and live ammunition, has led to numerous injuries and arrests, and notably, one fatality.
  • Lessons on Public Policy: The situation underscores the importance of public buy-in for successful policy implementation, effective communication, and balancing international standards with local economic realities.
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The Rise of Protectionist Economic Policies: A Response to Populism and Alternative Political Movements

Recently, advanced economies have witnessed a significant shift towards protectionist economic policies. While this is often framed in terms of geopolitical competition, especially involving China, this trend should also be understood as a response to the growing influence of populism and the surge in support for alternative political parties. To grasp this phenomenon, it is essential to examine the underlying causes and the interplay between populist sentiments and economic policy changes.

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