Tariffs as Geopolitical Tools: Tariffs are increasingly used not only for economic protection but also for geopolitical strategy, influencing global trade and signalling national interests.
Chinese EV Industry Example: The EU and other countries are imposing or considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, citing unfair competition, while also protecting domestic industries from the rapid growth of China’s EV sector.
Domestic Political Motives: Tariffs often cater to domestic political considerations, such as protecting jobs and industries, as leaders seek to address public concerns and safeguard strategic sectors.
Impact on Global Trade: While tariffs may protect local industries, they risk disrupting international supply chains, increasing costs for consumers, and escalating global trade tensions.
Strategic Industries and Future Trends: Tariffs on key sectors like green energy and advanced technology are expected to grow, further entrenching protectionism and complicating global trade relations.
In recent years, the growing backlash against mass tourism has become a significant issue for many of the world’s top travel destinations. Cities and countries that have long benefited economically from tourism are now grappling with its negative consequences, from environmental degradation to social tensions. In response, many local governments have implemented measures to curb overtourism, such as banning short-term rentals, imposing higher tourism taxes, and limiting the number of cruise ships allowed to dock. These actions, while necessary to protect local communities and ecosystems, have also brought new challenges, particularly in the realm of local politics.
The selection of JD Vance as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee signals a potential shift or reinforcement of certain economic and trade policies.
Vance, known for his populist stances and advocacy for the working class, aligns closely with many of Trump’s economic viewpoints.
This partnership likely suggests a future direction characterised by protectionist trade policies and a focus on reviving American manufacturing.
It indicates a strong desire among the electorate for policies that reclaim economic sovereignty, which is also reflected by the overlap between populist right and left economic policies
Necessity for Fiscal Reforms: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 aims to address fiscal deficits through tax reforms and align with IMF-supported economic stability measures.
Strong Public Opposition: The Bill has sparked widespread protests, reflecting deep dissatisfaction among Kenyans due to increased costs of living and perceived punitive tax measures.
Government Advocacy vs. Public Sentiment: President Ruto promotes the bill as essential for economic health, contrasting sharply with the negative public perception and overwhelming opposition revealed in polls.
Government Response to Protests: In response to intense public backlash, the government amended the Bill to remove some controversial taxes, highlighting the impact of civic engagement on policy.
Protest violence: Protests against Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 have intensified, resulting in violent confrontations between the police and demonstrators, predominantly young adults. The police response, involving tear gas, water cannons, and live ammunition, has led to numerous injuries and arrests, and notably, one fatality.
Lessons on Public Policy: The situation underscores the importance of public buy-in for successful policy implementation, effective communication, and balancing international standards with local economic realities.
Tariff Increase: The Biden administration is set to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) from 25% to potentially 100%, significantly raising the cost of Chinese EVs in the US market.
Geopolitical Strategy: This move aims to curtail China’s dominance in the global EV market and protect the nascent US clean energy sector from a flood of subsidised Chinese imports.
Domestic Industrial Policy: The tariffs are part of Biden’s broader strategy to boost American manufacturing, specifically in the EV and clean energy sectors, to ensure national security and economic growth.
Labour and Employment: The tariff policy is designed to support American jobs, particularly in the auto industry, resonating with labour unions and blue-collar workers in key battleground states.
Electoral Strategy: With the 2024 presidential election approaching, Biden’s move to raise tariffs helps distinguish his trade policy from that of former President Trump, who has also advocated for high tariffs on Chinese goods.
Recently, the agricultural sector has experienced significant unrest, manifesting in waves of farmer protests across the globe. Particularly prominent in the EU and India, these movements have been driven by a confluence of economic, environmental, and political challenges, reflecting broader concerns about sustainability, equity, and governance in the agricultural domain. This briefing note provides an overview of these protests, highlighting key examples, common themes and issues, and the wider political implications.
While the electrical grids of India, Bhutan, and Nepal aren’t fully synchronized as a single system, they are interconnected through various points and agreements, allowing for electricity exchange.
As landlocked and mountainous countries, Nepal and Bhutan have limited options to industrialize, but have hydropower potential. Electricity can be an important export for both.
The electrical grid connections facilitate the trade in electricity and contribute to regional energy security. Countries like Nepal and Bhutan export surplus electricity and import energy during periods of deficit, thereby supporting their energy needs and economic development.
These interconnections between India, Bhutan, and Nepal have spurred significant geopolitical and domestic political issues within the region, largely shaped by strategic interests, economic dependencies, and environmental concerns.
The current economic developments in Bangladesh, particularly in its apparel industry and regarding foreign reserves, reveal a mix of past growth and current challenges.
Apparel Industry Growth: Over the past decade, Bangladesh’s apparel industry has seen significant growth. From 2011 to 2019, Ready-Made Garment (RMG) exports from Bangladesh more than doubled, increasing from $14.6 billion to $33.1 billion, marking a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
2023 Slowdown in Apparel Industry: However, 2023 presents a downturn for this key sector. A global slowdown is anticipated to heavily impact Bangladesh’s garment industry, with export growth expected to fall by approximately 3 percentage points. This reduction is attributed to a deceleration in global clothing demand, which is set to add pressure on Bangladesh’s GDP and its dwindling foreign exchange reservess.
Wage Protests and Increases: The Bangladeshi government announced a 56% increase in the monthly minimum wage for garment workers, raising it to $113 from the previous $75. Despite this increase, workers have continued to protest, demanding further wage increases. These protests have sometimes turned violent, with instances of vandalism and clashes with police.
That exchange, in the latest press briefing by the IMF on China, caused us to revisit our post on Sri Lanka’s debt situation and provides an opportunity to expand on the broader geopolitical issues at play.
China’s interactions with multilateral financial institutions embody its larger international ambitions. Through strategic policy choices and leveraging its creditor status, China is actively working to transform these institutions, seeking a balance between its duties and rights, and striving to infuse the global financial governance structure with its own brand of influence.
