Situation Brief: Canada’s 2025 Election — How International Events Reshaped a Domestic Contest

Summary

  • Domestic discontent: Initially, the Canadian federal election focused heavily on domestic discontent with Justin Trudeau’s policies, allowing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to gain significant traction.
  • Mark Carney: Trudeau’s resignation and the subsequent appointment of Mark Carney, a former central banker, revitalised Liberal fortunes by projecting an image of economic expertise and crisis management.
  • Trump’s rhetoric: US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade threats and rhetoric about annexation dramatically shifted the election focus from domestic concerns to protecting Canadian sovereignty and economic independence.
  • External threats: Trump’s actions prompted a “rally-around-the-flag” effect, benefiting Carney’s Liberal Party as voters prioritised leadership strength against external threats.
  • Poilievre’s recalibration: Poilievre faced difficulties adapting his message to address Trump’s provocations effectively and struggled with perceptions linking him ideologically to Trump, undermining his campaign’s momentum.
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