Rest of the World – Politics & Policy media

Situation Brief: Canada’s 2025 Election — How International Events Reshaped a Domestic Contest

Summary

Domestic discontent: Initially, the Canadian federal election focused heavily on domestic discontent with Justin Trudeau’s policies, allowing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to gain significant traction.
Mark Carney: Trudeau’s resignation and the subsequent appointment of Mark Carney, a former central banker, revitalised Liberal fortunes by projecting an image of economic expertise and crisis management.
Trump’s rhetoric: US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade threats and rhetoric about annexation dramatically shifted the election focus from domestic concerns to protecting Canadian sovereignty and economic independence.
External threats: Trump’s actions prompted a “rally-around-the-flag” effect, benefiting Carney’s Liberal Party as voters prioritised leadership strength against external threats.
Poilievre’s recalibration: Poilievre faced difficulties adapting his message to address Trump’s provocations effectively and struggled with perceptions linking him ideologically to Trump, undermining his campaign’s momentum.

Situation Brief: The Democratic Party’s Leadership Crisis

Summary

Lesson for All Political Parties: The Democratic Party’s leadership crisis highlights the necessity of generational change and staying connected with party members, activists, and the public to remain relevant and effective. Failure to adapt to shifting voter expectations can lead to declining support and internal turmoil.
Strategic Divisions: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to support a Republican-led funding bill exposed deep divisions within the Democratic Party. While Schumer framed it as a necessary compromise, many Democrats saw it as capitulation, fuelling accusations of weak opposition to Trump.
Declining Favourability: Democratic Party approval ratings have reached historic lows, with many voters feeling that their leaders are not fighting hard enough against the Republican agenda. Internal dissatisfaction has led to growing support for primary challenges and calls for Schumer’s resignation.
Leadership Vacuum: Despite widespread frustration, there is no clear consensus on who should replace Schumer, as much of the party’s leadership consists of long-time figures considered too cautious. This uncertainty complicates the party’s ability to present a unified and effective opposition to the Trump-led Republican Party.
Future Implications: The Democratic Party risks further alienating its base and losing electoral momentum if it fails to resolve its internal conflicts. The 2026 midterms will test whether the party can unify under new leadership or remain fragmented, potentially giving Republicans an advantage.

Tariffs as a Geopolitical Tool: The Intersection of Domestic Politics and Global Trade

Summary

Tariffs as Geopolitical Tools: Tariffs are increasingly used not only for economic protection but also for geopolitical strategy, influencing global trade and signalling national interests.
Chinese EV Industry Example: The EU and other countries are imposing or considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, citing unfair competition, while also protecting domestic industries from the rapid growth of China’s EV sector.
Domestic Political Motives: Tariffs often cater to domestic political considerations, such as protecting jobs and industries, as leaders seek to address public concerns and safeguard strategic sectors.
Impact on Global Trade: While tariffs may protect local industries, they risk disrupting international supply chains, increasing costs for consumers, and escalating global trade tensions.
Strategic Industries and Future Trends: Tariffs on key sectors like green energy and advanced technology are expected to grow, further entrenching protectionism and complicating global trade relations.

Media Choices in the 2024 Presidential Campaign Reflect a Changing Communications Landscape

Summary

The media landscape has shifted, with traditional news outlets losing influence and alternative platforms like podcasts and social media gaining prominence.
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are adopting multi-platform strategies to target specific voter demographics, particularly those disengaged from traditional media.
Harris’s media appearances on podcasts like Call Her Daddy and talk shows aim to reach young, female, and minority voters with tailored messaging.
Trump is focusing on podcasts hosted by influencers to connect with younger, male audiences, using their platforms to bypass traditional political news channels.
The shift in campaign strategies reflects the declining trust in traditional media, signalling the growing importance of personalised, direct engagement through alternative media.

When Politicians and Food Don’t Mix: A Recipe for Awkwardness

The viral video of JD Vance’s awkward campaign stop at a donut shop sparked a lively discussion about food as a political prop. In politics, every gesture is scrutinised, every word dissected, and every bite savoured. Yet, despite the high stakes, politicians across the globe continue to venture into the treacherous territory of public dining as part of their electoral charm offensive. The result? Occasionally, it’s less of a gourmet experience and more of a farce.

Navigating the Backlash Against Mass Tourism: briefing note

In recent years, the growing backlash against mass tourism has become a significant issue for many of the world’s top travel destinations. Cities and countries that have long benefited economically from tourism are now grappling with its negative consequences, from environmental degradation to social tensions. In response, many local governments have implemented measures to curb overtourism, such as banning short-term rentals, imposing higher tourism taxes, and limiting the number of cruise ships allowed to dock. These actions, while necessary to protect local communities and ecosystems, have also brought new challenges, particularly in the realm of local politics.

Far-right violence in the UK: situation brief

Summary

Recent riots in England, triggered by a mass stabbing in Southport, have been driven by far-right groups and exacerbated by misinformation and xenophobic rhetoric.
Public figures associated with the far-right like Tommy Robinson and Nigel Farage have been accused of inflaming tensions, with Farage questioning the authorities’ transparency and Robinson criticising government and police responses.
Refugees have been targeted in the violence, with far-right protesters attacking hotels housing asylum seekers and using nationalist slogans to incite further unrest. Muslims have also been significant targets, facing Islamophobic slurs and violent actions, particularly outside places of worship during protests.
Authorities and community leaders are working to restore order and promote social cohesion, but the persistence of far-right rhetoric remains a significant challenge to these efforts.

The Trump-Vance Ticket — populist economics to the fore : situation update

Summary

The selection of JD Vance as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee signals a potential shift or reinforcement of certain economic and trade policies.
Vance, known for his populist stances and advocacy for the working class, aligns closely with many of Trump’s economic viewpoints.
This partnership likely suggests a future direction characterised by protectionist trade policies and a focus on reviving American manufacturing.
It indicates a strong desire among the electorate for policies that reclaim economic sovereignty, which is also reflected by the overlap between populist right and left economic policies

Situation brief: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024

Summary

Necessity for Fiscal Reforms: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 aims to address fiscal deficits through tax reforms and align with IMF-supported economic stability measures.
Strong Public Opposition: The Bill has sparked widespread protests, reflecting deep dissatisfaction among Kenyans due to increased costs of living and perceived punitive tax measures.
Government Advocacy vs. Public Sentiment: President Ruto promotes the bill as essential for economic health, contrasting sharply with the negative public perception and overwhelming opposition revealed in polls.
Government Response to Protests: In response to intense public backlash, the government amended the Bill to remove some controversial taxes, highlighting the impact of civic engagement on policy.
Protest violence: Protests against Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024 have intensified, resulting in violent confrontations between the police and demonstrators, predominantly young adults. The police response, involving tear gas, water cannons, and live ammunition, has led to numerous injuries and arrests, and notably, one fatality.
Lessons on Public Policy: The situation underscores the importance of public buy-in for successful policy implementation, effective communication, and balancing international standards with local economic realities.

Chinese electric vehicles & soft power: situation update

Summary

Tariff Increase: The Biden administration is set to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) from 25% to potentially 100%, significantly raising the cost of Chinese EVs in the US market.
Geopolitical Strategy: This move aims to curtail China’s dominance in the global EV market and protect the nascent US clean energy sector from a flood of subsidised Chinese imports.
Domestic Industrial Policy: The tariffs are part of Biden’s broader strategy to boost American manufacturing, specifically in the EV and clean energy sectors, to ensure national security and economic growth.
Labour and Employment: The tariff policy is designed to support American jobs, particularly in the auto industry, resonating with labour unions and blue-collar workers in key battleground states.
Electoral Strategy: With the 2024 presidential election approaching, Biden’s move to raise tariffs helps distinguish his trade policy from that of former President Trump, who has also advocated for high tariffs on Chinese goods.