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Taiwan: situational update

Following up from our previous situational brief on Taiwan’s elections, some dramatic developments last week.

Summary

The Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), had agreed to field joint candidates in the upcoming presidential election, increasing the chances of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) losing power.
However, the panel of polling experts chosen by the parties was unable to reach an agreement on who will lead the joint ticket.
The experts recommended continuing the discussion at a later date.
The candidate registration deadline is November 24, and there is still the possibility of a last minute deal.

Bangladesh’s economy: Situational brief

The current economic developments in Bangladesh, particularly in its apparel industry and regarding foreign reserves, reveal a mix of past growth and current challenges.

Apparel Industry Growth: Over the past decade, Bangladesh’s apparel industry has seen significant growth. From 2011 to 2019, Ready-Made Garment (RMG) exports from Bangladesh more than doubled, increasing from $14.6 billion to $33.1 billion, marking a compound annual growth rate of 7%.
2023 Slowdown in Apparel Industry: However, 2023 presents a downturn for this key sector. A global slowdown is anticipated to heavily impact Bangladesh’s garment industry, with export growth expected to fall by approximately 3 percentage points. This reduction is attributed to a deceleration in global clothing demand, which is set to add pressure on Bangladesh’s GDP and its dwindling foreign exchange reservess.
Wage Protests and Increases: The Bangladeshi government announced a 56% increase in the monthly minimum wage for garment workers, raising it to $113 from the previous $75. Despite this increase, workers have continued to protest, demanding further wage increases. These protests have sometimes turned violent, with instances of vandalism and clashes with police.

Taiwan’s Presidential Elections: Situational brief

Taiwan’s upcoming January 2024 presidential election is a pivotal moment in its political landscape, marked by the candidacy of four main contenders: Vice President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang Party (KMT), Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), and independent candidate Terry Gou. This election is closely watched by both Washington and Beijing, given its implications for cross-Strait tensions and Taiwan’s global relationships.

The election’s focus is on managing relations with China, a key foreign policy issue, alongside domestic concerns such as economic and environmental policies. Lai Ching-te emphasises increasing Taiwan’s autonomy and security through closer relations with the United States and other democracies. The DPP has been at the helm during a period of growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Conversely, Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang (KMT) party, campaigns on averting war with China, asserting that the KMT is better equipped to manage cross-strait tensions.

Chinese electric vehicles & soft power

China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry plays a critical role in its geopolitical strategy, especially as it gains increasing market share in both Western Europe and Asia. In 2023, China’s EV market, accounting for 60% of the global total, is expected to maintain strong growth. The country led global EV sales in 2022, representing around 60% of these sales. This dominant position isn’t just an economic triumph; it’s a strategic move in the realm of soft power and international influence, positioning China as a key player in shaping the future of global transportation and energy policies. It’s a fascinating mixture of technology, geopolitics, soft power and marketing. All in a package that is visible and impactful in the day-to-day lives of regular people.

In Western Europe, Chinese automakers are steadily increasing their presence. They accounted for about 8.4% of the region’s EV market, up from 6.2% the previous year. Made-in-China EVs comprised 11.2% of all EVs sold in Germany in the first half of 2023, and the overall market share of China-based car brands in Western Europe’s EV market is expected to grow from 6% to 9% in 2023. This growth is indicative of China’s expanding influence in one of the world’s key automotive markets.

China and multilateral financial institutions

Q: “has China shown the IMF, the deal that has supposedly been struck between the China EXIM Bank and Sri Lanka?”

A: “We have not seen the details of this yet, but this again should come out through our routine engagement.”
Transcript of the Press Briefing on the 2023 China Article IV Consultation Mission

That exchange, in the latest press briefing by the IMF on China, caused us to revisit our post on Sri Lanka’s debt situation and provides an opportunity to expand on the broader geopolitical issues at play.

China’s interactions with multilateral financial institutions embody its larger international ambitions. Through strategic policy choices and leveraging its creditor status, China is actively working to transform these institutions, seeking a balance between its duties and rights, and striving to infuse the global financial governance structure with its own brand of influence.

Bhutan elections: Situational brief

Bhutan’s unique position between China and India has significant implications for regional security. While historically isolated, Bhutan has begun opening up to foreign influence, carefully managing its diplomatic ties. Its relationship with India is crucial, with India providing economic support and Bhutan serving as a buffer state. Bhutan’s diplomatic approach aims to balance relations with its neighbors and engage in global initiatives aligned with its developmental goals and values.

Bhutan is preparing for its National Assembly elections, which are scheduled to take place on 30 November 2023 and 9 January 2024 . The political landscape has evolved since the 2018 elections when the Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) won a majority of seats, and its leader, Lotay Tshering, became the Prime Ministe. The DNT has continued to strengthen its position, winning four by-elections during the 2018–2023 term.

Bangladesh elections: Situational brief

Bangladesh is approaching a critical period in its political landscape, with general elections scheduled for January 202. The political climate is described as tumultuous, with previous elections in 2014 and 2018 being marred by controversy. The opposition parties, in particular, are pressing for the resignation of the government led by Sheikh Hasina, who has been in power since 2009, to ensure a free and fair election.

The political unrest is not solely based on electoral politics but is also intertwined with an economic crisis that the country is currently facing. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is actively mobilizing the populace with a focus on the upcoming elections amid this challenging economic scenario.

Sri Lanka – debt update

An interesting wrinkle in Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic resurrection efforts, and one with broader geopolitical implications.

Sri Lanka had reached an agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim Bank) on key terms and principles for restructuring its debt, which marks a significant step towards unlocking further financial aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The agreement, made in October, encompasses approximately $4.2 billion of Sri Lanka’s outstanding debt.

The IMF is expected to analyze the details of this tentative agreement, which are crucial for Sri Lanka to progress with its IMF program. The Sri Lankan government is awaiting approval from the IMF for a second tranche of funds, and a debt restructuring proposal from the Paris Club consortium..