Situation Brief: Pakistan’s 26th Constitutional Amendment

Summary

  • Reforms to the Judiciary: The 26th Constitutional Amendment in Pakistan introduces significant changes to the judiciary, including curtailing the Supreme Court’s suo motu powers (ability to act on its own cognizance) and creating specialised constitutional benches​.
  • Judicial Appointments: The amendment restructures the Judicial Commission of Pakistan, increasing parliamentary influence over judicial appointments and adding a technocrat to the selection panel​.
  • Environmental Rights: A new Article 9A guarantees citizens the right to a clean and sustainable environment, reflecting growing environmental concerns​.
  • Supporters’ View: Proponents argue the amendment restores the balance of power between parliament and judiciary, while improving judicial efficiency and transparency​.
  • Critics’ Concerns: Critics, including the opposition and international bodies, warn it undermines judicial independence by increasing political influence and limiting judicial oversight​.
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Tariffs as a Geopolitical Tool: The Intersection of Domestic Politics and Global Trade

Summary

  • Tariffs as Geopolitical Tools: Tariffs are increasingly used not only for economic protection but also for geopolitical strategy, influencing global trade and signalling national interests.
  • Chinese EV Industry Example: The EU and other countries are imposing or considering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, citing unfair competition, while also protecting domestic industries from the rapid growth of China’s EV sector.
  • Domestic Political Motives: Tariffs often cater to domestic political considerations, such as protecting jobs and industries, as leaders seek to address public concerns and safeguard strategic sectors.
  • Impact on Global Trade: While tariffs may protect local industries, they risk disrupting international supply chains, increasing costs for consumers, and escalating global trade tensions.
  • Strategic Industries and Future Trends: Tariffs on key sectors like green energy and advanced technology are expected to grow, further entrenching protectionism and complicating global trade relations.
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Middle-class populism in Singapore?: situation brief

  • Policy announcements: Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has announced policies to support the middle class, address societal concerns, and maintain social stability in Singapore.
  • Housing Affordability: Enhanced subsidies and adjusted income ceilings aim to make public housing more accessible for middle-income families, addressing the rising costs of private housing.
  • Healthcare and Social Security: Increased healthcare subsidies and expanded CPF contributions are designed to ease the financial burden on the middle class, particularly in the face of rising medical costs.
  • Education and Skills Development: Expanded subsidies for skills upgrading and lifelong learning seek to boost middle-class workers’ adaptability in a rapidly changing economy, ensuring continued upward mobility.
  • Cost of Living Relief: Targeted financial relief, such as utility bill rebates and tax reliefs, aims to mitigate the pressures of rising living costs on middle-income households.
  • Social Cohesion and Inequality: These policies aim to address middle-class disillusionment and prevent social fractures by ensuring economic opportunities remain accessible and social harmony is maintained amidst growing inequality.
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Navigating the Backlash Against Mass Tourism: briefing note

In recent years, the growing backlash against mass tourism has become a significant issue for many of the world’s top travel destinations. Cities and countries that have long benefited economically from tourism are now grappling with its negative consequences, from environmental degradation to social tensions. In response, many local governments have implemented measures to curb overtourism, such as banning short-term rentals, imposing higher tourism taxes, and limiting the number of cruise ships allowed to dock. These actions, while necessary to protect local communities and ecosystems, have also brought new challenges, particularly in the realm of local politics.

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Bangladesh: situation update

Summary

Bangladesh has experienced significant political unrest and violence, with the following key events have taken place in the past 24 hrs:

  • Violence and Clashes: The protests, initially driven by demands for electoral reforms and an end to the quota system for government jobs, have escalated into violent clashes between protesters and security forces. Over 80 people, including at least 13 police officers, have been reported killed in these confrontations. Authorities have imposed a curfew and restricted internet access in an attempt to control the situation.
  • Prime Minister Resigns: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and reportedly fled the capital, Dhaka, amid the escalating violence. This development has intensified the political crisis, with opposition parties and protesters calling for the establishment of an interim government to oversee the next elections.
  • General Waker-uz-Zaman assumes control: The military, led by General Waker-uz-Zaman, stepped in to restore order, imposing a curfew and restricting internet access. General Waker-uz-Zaman announced the military’s takeover in a press conference, emphasising the need to address the protesters’ demands and promising to stabilise the situation.
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India’s Election: Situational Update

Summary

  • Congress’s “Nyay Patra” Manifesto: Focuses on social justice with promises for jobs, financial aid for women, and a controversial wealth redistribution survey based on caste and minority status, sparking debates about its potential to deepen social divisions.
  • BJP’s “Abki Baar 400 Paar” Campaign: Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, targets over 400 seats with a platform emphasising national security, economic growth, and Hindu cultural nationalism. Criticises Congress’s manifesto as threatening national security and stability.
  • Controversial Aspects of Congress’s Manifesto: Includes a wealth redistribution plan and a caste census, which have been criticised for potentially fostering economic disincentives and social unrest.
  • Modi’s Rhetoric Viewed as Anti-Muslim: Accusations against Congress for pandering to Muslim interests, using divisive language, and linking Congress policies to historical adversaries like the Muslim League.
  • Electoral Strategies and Implications: BJP’s campaign focuses on a strong nationalistic approach, while Congress aims for transformative social justice measures. The election presents a stark choice between two contrasting visions for India’s future.
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India’s Election Bond Scheme: situational brief

Summary

  • The Election Bond Scheme was launched by the Indian government in 2018, allowing anonymous donations to political parties via bonds issued by the State Bank of India, aimed at increasing transparency in political funding.
  • Despite initial optimism, the scheme faced criticism for lacking transparency, as it enabled donors to contribute anonymously, raising concerns about undisclosed influences on policymaking.
  • Analysis indicated a disproportionate advantage to the ruling party, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) receiving the majority of funds through these bonds, highlighting potential biases in the distribution of donations.
  • Legal and ethical concerns emerged regarding the potential for an influx of unaccounted money and foreign influence in the political system, prompting challenges in the Supreme Court of India and calls for reform to address these issues.
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Sri Lanka: Briefing Note — 2024-03-26

For a detailed timeline of major events in Sri Lanka post-2019, please visit our Sri Lanka Timeline.

Our previous Sri Lanka briefing notes can found here.

Election season begins

  • While speculation continues to run rampant in certain circles about whether the Presidential or Parliamentary election will be held first, it seems clear that President Wickremesinghe (RW) intends to hold the former first.
    • He continues to position the economic reforms and IMF program as the priority for the country, and the only way forward for Sri Lanka.
    • Leveraging that, his personal positioning is that of the only person with the expertise, and the ability to form a broad consensus among the political class to carry through with it.
    • The question, as has been the case throughout his career, is whether he can convince ordinary voters that this is the case.
  • RW’s main points of attack were on full-display at a rally for the United National Party that he leads.
    • Speaking about the breakaway SJP party (led by Sajith Premadasa((SP))), he stated:

the foundational principles of the United National Party are absent in the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), appealed to former United National Party members who joined the SJB to unite in safeguarding the nation from indebtedness and contribute to constructing a secure future for generations to come.

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Global Farmer Protests: Briefing Note

Recently, the agricultural sector has experienced significant unrest, manifesting in waves of farmer protests across the globe. Particularly prominent in the EU and India, these movements have been driven by a confluence of economic, environmental, and political challenges, reflecting broader concerns about sustainability, equity, and governance in the agricultural domain. This briefing note provides an overview of these protests, highlighting key examples, common themes and issues, and the wider political implications.

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Sri Lanka: Briefing Note

For a detailed timeline of major events in Sri Lanka post-2019, please visit our Sri Lanka Timeline.

Our previous Sri Lanka briefing notes can found here.

Political Landscape

  • The landscape continues to be dominated by discourse around the leftist NPP party: this time in the aftermath of their visit to India on an official visit.
    • The NPP is attempting to pitch this as an example of their growth into a party fit for government. 
    • Its opponents are trying to portray the visit as hypocrisy and proof that for all their extravagant rhetoric, the NPP are constrained by the same geopolitical realities as every other aspirant for government. 
  • The biggest winner here is the Indian government. It is now starkly apparent that whoever forms a government will have to defer to the political muscle and economic might of India.
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