Following up from our previous situational brief on Taiwan’s elections, some dramatic developments last week.
Summary
- The Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), had agreed to field joint candidates in the upcoming presidential election, increasing the chances of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) losing power.
- However, the panel of polling experts chosen by the parties was unable to reach an agreement on who will lead the joint ticket.
- The experts recommended continuing the discussion at a later date.
- The candidate registration deadline is November 24, and there is still the possibility of a last minute deal.
Details
Taiwan’s two main opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), had reached an agreement to field joint candidates in the upcoming presidential election. This deal significantly increased the chances of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) losing power. The KMT has nominated former police chief and New Taipei City mayor Hou Yu-ih, while the TPP has put forward former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je.
Both candidates have expressed a desire to resume dialogue with China. The decision on who will lead the joint ticket was to be based on the candidates’ support ratings, determined by a panel of three polling experts chosen by the KMT, TPP, and former president Ma Ying-jeou. These experts were to review publicly released polls conducted between November 7 and 17, as well as internal polls conducted by the two parties, to reach a mutually acceptable result.
However, the polling experts were unable to come to an agreement, according to Hsiao Hsu-tsen, the director of the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation. The stalemate arose when the TPP representative objected to the inclusion of three out of the nine selected surveys, but did not specify the reasons. Hsiao stated that if the remaining six surveys were analyzed using the statistical margin of error, five of them would support a Hou-Ko ticket. But, if a 3-percentage-point margin was used as advocated by the TPP, the result would be a tie. The experts have recommended continuing the discussion at a later date.