The election: What I got right & wrong

A post election round-up of what I got right and where I was wrong. It’s a follow-up to my earlier post on “Why Biden will win“. To summarise: while I got the outlines of the result and pathway to victory correct, I got aspects of the electorate dramatically wrong. What I got wrong The Trump base The polls The […]

Why Biden will win

Misunderstanding the reasons for an electoral victory is something that plagues both campaigns and the media. Too often, the victory is attributed to the wrong or overly complex reasons. This surface level analysis is deliberately designed to contrast with the hot-takes that will inevitably follow in the aftermath of the election result. The primary reasons […]

Biden, Trump & framing the issues

In a series of tweets, I drew attention to a tactical mistake that Biden made in his response to BLM protests, especially over those in Kenosha. The key points are: “Law & Order” is safe Republican/Conservative territory Biden is adopting Trump’s framing of a nation at war with itself, which makes an authoritarian & conservative […]

Jamaal Bowman & the Political Disruption Model

Bowman’s primary contest for NY-16 provides another opportunity to test the disruption model. There have been two recent events that have brought this race into prominence, with Bowman securing AOC’s endorsement and his opponent having a disastrous hot mic moment. Bowman has also benefited from a progressive opponent dropping out to endorse him. In terms […]

The right, adaption & the primary contradictions

Before (perhaps instead) of completing what was supposed to be a two-post commentary on the result of the general election in the UK, I felt it important to elaborate on something I mentioned in the first post. Having finally got around to reading Stuart Hall’s “The Great Moving Right Show”, I was struck by how […]

The UK general election 2019: What breaks a butterfly upon a wheel? (I)

The Labour decision to back a second referendum was a mistake from a campaigning perspective. As a campaign, it signalled the following to Leave voters. Labour could not be trusted and was a party of politics as usual. It reinforced the personal smearing on Corbyn as someone who could not be trusted. This article does […]

Demographics, Voting blocs and wishful thinking

A video from a 2014 marketing summit and a Sri Lankan political opinion piece from the start of this week provided some thought-provoking insight into a form of reductionism and generalisation. This kind of thinking is not just misleading, for campaigns it is a dangerous trap that can undermine communications and marketing. As Adam Conover […]

Ideology and campaigns

The idiosyncratic (and always thought-provoking) musings of Zizek aside, ideology has a hugely important but often misunderstood role in the current era of campaigns. It is also one of the four primary criteria in the disruption model of politics. It is crucial to draw a distinction between ideology and policies in this context. Quoting from a previous post: […]

Using the Political Disruption Model

This event which provided the most detailed articulation to date of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inevitable Presidential campaign also provides an opportunity to apply the political disruption model. As I (smugly) pointed out on Twitter, I identified the contours of this campaign earlier this year. With one exception, applying the model to the campaign shows that it meets the […]

The Political Disruption Model v1

I’ve been working on a model of political disruption that covers challenges to mainstream parties and politics. This includes situations where the ultimate goal was achieved, as in the case of the Trump campaign or ones that have significantly shifted the political landscape, such as Corbyn with the Labour Party in the UK and Bernie Sanders […]