Misunderstanding the reasons for an electoral victory is something that plagues both campaigns and the media. Too often, the victory is attributed to the wrong or overly complex reasons. This surface level analysis is deliberately designed to contrast with the hot-takes that will inevitably follow in the aftermath of the election result.
The primary reasons identified are:
Biden is not Hillary Clinton
Despite his mostly reactionary (but mainstream at the time) views during his many years in politics, Biden is not a polarising figure like Clinton.
This is something the Trump campaign has failed to realise.
Biden’s positions are more popular
Quite simply, Biden p0lls better than Trump on the major issues.
Despite a clear partisan division, the numbers on Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis are striking.
Trump’s base has eroded
Having governed in a divisive manner, Trump has failed to expand his vote base. While there is some evidence of positive changes for Trump in certain groups, this is offset by white suburban women moving away from him.
Meanwhile, reliable Democrat voting blocks such as minorities and college educated whites form an increasingly larger portion of the electorate at the expense of non-college educated whites.