Why Biden will win

Misunderstanding the reasons for an electoral victory is something that plagues both campaigns and the media. Too often, the victory is attributed to the wrong or overly complex reasons. This surface level analysis is deliberately designed to contrast with the hot-takes that will inevitably follow in the aftermath of the election result.

The primary reasons identified are:

  1. Biden is not Hillary Clinton
  2. Trump’s base has eroded
  3. Biden favoured on critical issues

Biden is not Hillary Clinton

Despite his mostly reactionary (but mainstream at the time) views during his many years in politics, Biden is not a polarising figure like Clinton.

This is something the Trump campaign has failed to realise.

Biden’s positions are more popular

Quite simply, Biden p0lls better than Trump on the major issues.

Despite a clear partisan division, the numbers on Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis are striking.

Trump’s base has eroded

Having governed in a divisive manner, Trump has failed to expand his vote base. While there is some evidence of positive changes for Trump in certain groups, this is offset by white suburban women moving away from him.

Meanwhile, reliable Democrat voting blocks such as minorities and college educated whites form an increasingly larger portion of the electorate at the expense of non-college educated whites.

Join the Conversation

3 Comments

Leave a comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: