Jamaal Bowman & the Political Disruption Model

Bowman’s primary contest for NY-16 provides another opportunity to test the disruption model.

There have been two recent events that have brought this race into prominence, with Bowman securing AOC’s endorsement and his opponent having a disastrous hot mic moment. Bowman has also benefited from a progressive opponent dropping out to endorse him.

In terms of polling and endorsements, Elliot holds a lead though the former was tighter than expected based on November’s data. Especially significant was the number of undecideds.

Based on meeting the criteria in my model, I think Bowman will win.

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