NB: This post was published on an older blog and imported into this one. Please forgive any formatting issues.
As I (smugly) pointed out on Twitter, I identified the contours of this campaign earlier this year.
With one exception, applying the model to the campaign shows that it meets the criteria needed for success.
While he has tremendous name recognition and a reputation for efficiency, due to his association with extreme Sinhala nationalism and his role as Defence Secretary personal branding is an issue for GR. I suspect this may not be a disincentive to the majority of undecided and floating voters in the south of Sri Lanka. However, ethnic minorities (primarily Hindu Tamils and Muslims) make-up approximately 22% of the total votes. Despite his appeals to an inclusive economic nationalism, they may take a far more sceptical attitude to him.