Using the Political Disruption Model

NB: This post was first published on another blog and imported into this one. Please forgive any formatting issues.

This event which provided the most detailed articulation to date of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inevitable Presidential campaign also provides an opportunity to apply the political disruption model.

As I (smugly) pointed out on Twitter, I identified the contours of this campaign earlier this year.

With one exception, applying the model to the campaign shows that it meets the criteria needed for success.

While he has tremendous name recognition and a reputation for efficiency, due to his association with extreme Sinhala nationalism and his role as Defence Secretary personal branding is an issue for GR. I suspect this may not be a disincentive to the majority of undecided and floating voters in the south of Sri Lanka. However, ethnic minorities (primarily Hindu Tamils and Muslims) make-up approximately 22% of the total votes. Despite his appeals to an inclusive economic nationalism, they may take a far more sceptical attitude to him.

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