It’s a shame that a rare sensible & analytical look at #LGPolls2018 #LGpollSL had to be in The Island https://t.co/OafenagKzp @PresRajapaksa 40%+ base is the most significant number in #srilanka-n politics. pic.twitter.com/VMHywio5ml
— Rajit Hewagama (@rajit_h) February 15, 2018
Pay attention to the numbers and this part:
In very general terms Rajapaksa and his party has had the support of around 45% of the electorate in the three polls. The most notable revelation is that he has a solid base of over 40% that his rivals do not have.
To defeat Mahinda (excluding a Presidential election), the question is how the UNP flips enough floating + disillusioned SLFP votes. Currently, the SLFP (non-Mahinda) faction is really only important as a source for harvesting votes by Mahinda or the UNP.
if both the TNA share as well as the JVP share are excluded from the Saturday vote the combined UNP-UPFA-SLFP share falls to 41.5% from the 45.7% that the same party combination polled in the August 2015 parliamentary elections. This is a serious loss of 4.2 percentage points. Some people not voting on Saturday as a mark of protest against the government that failed to fulfill its promises and some switching the vote to the JVP or the SLPP are the likely reasons for this. There is a two percentage point uptick in the share of the SLPP vote compared to the share in August 2015. These movements are sufficient to make a difference to the result when an election is close.